the art collectors

Wednesday, January 7th, 2009

It Was A Very Good Year or Hey Hey, Goodbye!

Images via artprice

Has Damien Hirst committed professional suicide and is he’s taking the rest of the art market with him?

Over past few weeks, the hot topic for art critics has been speculation that not only may Hirst’s monumental Sotheby’s sale turn out to be his achilles heel, but the breaking point for the entire art market. Has the record shattering auction signaled the end of a reeling market bubble and incessant speculative buying?  Since the September 15th sale, several signs suggest that Hirst’s prices are dropping, with more and more works failing to find buyers at auction and international fairs.

Over on artnet, Charlie Finch makes some colorful predictions for the coming year, wryly suggesting, “DAMIEN HIRST’S CAREER IS OVER,” and “like those of Schnabel, Cucchi, Salle and other victims of the late 1980s crash, [his] values will never recover.” The lesson learned from Schnabel’s trajectory through the 1980s is well known. Over the span of two years from 1979 to 1981, prices for Schnabel’s work skyrocket from $6,000 to $40,000 per painting. Then, after soaring through the decade riding the back of an over-inflated market built largely on ego and celebrity, the career of the self-proclaimed “most famous painter in America” suffered a critical collapse.  By the 1990s he had all but disappeared from the art world, reemerging as a film director in 1997 with the biopic, Basquiat. Will Hirst suffer the same fate, and will the general art market tumble along with him?

Clearly, the downward spiral seems to be holding true for the market at large. Art Market Insight notes that during 2007 and 2008 (before mid-September) 80% of works offered at auctions with estimates over 1 million euros were sold. However, beginning September 17, 2008, the day after the Hirst sale, only 55% of works offered in this price range found buyers. Furthermore, buyers have become much more modest in their bidding –  Prior to the Hirst auction 35% of lots offered (all works, all periods) sold above their low estimate. After September 16, this deflated to a mere 24%.

With an estimate of $3-4 million, Damien Hirst’s 2007 spin painting, “Beautiful Artemis Thor Neptune Odin Delusional Sapphic Inspirational Hypnosis Painting”  went unsold at a Nov 13, 2008 Phillips de Pury auction. (Image via Phillips de Pury)

A December 31 Bloomberg report argued that “Hirst’s record Beautiful Inside My Head Forever sale and collapse of Lehman Brothers Inc. in September marked the turning of the art market in 2008,” including the recent failed sale of Hirst’s “Beautiful Artemis Thor Neptune Odin Delusional Sapphic Inspirational Hypnosis Painting,”  (the spin painting went unsold at Phillips de Pury this past November, despite a $1.8 million reserve on a piece estimated between $3 – 4 million), and weak results at Art Basel Miami.

The verdict may not be unanimous though.  Art Market Monitor does a good job of pointing out the weaknesses of the Bloomberg claims, and The Telegraph’s Colin Gleadell reminds us us that as recenlty as a late December sale, “Hirst’s spot prints and spin paintings opened to unanimous approval. Within days, all but five of the 22 works had been sold. Prices ranged from £10,000 to £250,000.

While disagreement remains over the future of Hirst, no one seems to be arguing the dire state of the overall market. That is no one except the auction houses themselves.