the art collectors

Thursday, January 22nd, 2009

Survey Says? – Contemporary Market Bottoming Out

The contemporary art market is officially in a depression and, like the global economy at large, will not recover for several years – three to five to be exact, according to a recent ArtTactic study (also cited in a Jan. 20 Bloomberg report).

Conducted once every two years, Art Tactic’s biennial study suggests that confidence levels in the contemporary art market have fallen from an indicator level of 56 to just 10.8, declining 81% since May of last year. The latest study is based on a survey of 145 European collectors, dealers, and auction house specialists, as well as auction results from both Christies and Sotheby’s latest New York evening contemporary art sales – both of which failed to meet low estimates, with approximately one third of all lots remaining unsold. The combined revenue (including fees) from these tell-tale sales reached a mere $238.7 million, 37% below their 2007 total of $640.9 million. 

Over half of all respondents believe it will take more than three years for the contemporary art market to recover (with more than 50 percent of that sub-group feeling the market will take over five years to bounce back).  47 percent of those surveyed believe auction prices will continue to fall and bottom out between 30-50% from their May 2008 totals.

In addition to their Art Market Confidence Survey (conducted since 2005), Art Tactic has launch their new Art Market Survival Rating, which assesses the impact of the market on specific artist’s careers over the next decade. The new indicator is divided into two categories – contemporary artists (including Andreas Gursky, Cindy Sherman, Damien Hirst, Elisabeth Peyton, Jeff Koons, Jeff Wall, Luc Tuymans, Marlene Dumas, Matthew Barney, Paul McCarthy, Richard Prince, Takashi Murakami, and Gerhard Richter), and contemporary blue-chip artists (including Sol Le Witt, Dan Flavin, Ellsworth Kelly, Robert Rauschenberg, Willem de Kooning, Mark Rothko, Roy Lichtenstein, Francis Bacon, Andy Warhol, Joseph Buys, George Segal, and Robert Indiana). An overall downward trend is evident even when considering a group of artists that many believed could be insulated from the financial shock suffered by the market at large. This should come as no surprise, especially in in the wake of recent talk surrounding the slump in Damien Hirst’s market.

We’re expecting to see these dismal predictions further substantiated as results emerge from the upcoming round of London contemporary art auctions. Follow the troubling action here:

Feb 5 – Sotheby’s – Contemporary Evening Sale

Feb 6 – Sotheby’s Contemporary Day Sale

Feb 11 – Christies – Post-War and Contemporary Art Evening Sale

Feb 12 – Christies – Post-War and Contemporary Art Day Sale

Feb 12 – Phillips de Pury – Contemporary Art Evening Sale

Feb 13 – Phillips de Pury – Contemporary Art Day Sale